A Trumping new reality – CET opinion

One of the most disappointing characteristics of our 21st Century is that while we live in a high-tech world, billions are still struggling under cruel political systems.

Our century has seen many attempts to dethrone dictators. Surprisingly few prevailed. One exception was Ukraine, which overthrew Russian influence in February 2014, forcing its Kremlin puppet president Viktor Yanukovych to flee the country.

But the story did not stop there. Russia seized Crimea the following month, before a “shadow war” began in the Donbas region, with the help of pro-Russian separatists, the month after that. Then, on February 24, 2022, Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Ukraine’s decade of fighting for democracy

For over a decade, Ukrainians have endured occupation, upheaval, and open warfare, in pursuit of the basic principles of a free and democratic society: fundamental values the West has represented and the United States had actively promoted since World War II.

When the US president accuses Ukraine of starting the war and labels its leader a dictator, it is a genuine moment in history. Trump quickly accepted the Kremlin’s reasoning that Ukraine’s attempts to get closer to the EU and NATO were a real threat to Russia.

It is hard to imagine a more disingenuous position. Who really believes that NATO, a defence alliance, is a threat to any peaceful neighbouring country, or that Putin’s real motivation when he ordered the poisoning and killing of Ukrainian politicians and the subsequent invasion, was to protect his nation against potential aggression from the West?

Blinken’s blinkered brinkmanship

We cannot ignore the Biden administration’s culpability in Ukraine`s struggle. Even if the world tends to see the former US government as a supporter of the cause, Biden’s White House disastrously failed Ukraine, as the US had the power to stop this war from happening, with only a few words.

In politics, words matter. If the then US secretary of state Antony Blinken, rather than guaranteeing the US would not send troops to Ukraine, had promised to protect the country, Putin would have never gone ahead with his plan. He is not stupid enough to attack the 3.5-million-strong NATO with an army that was incapable of even prevailing against Ukrainian military forces.

While many have praised the Biden administration for not escalating this conflict, politics doesn’t work without the capacity to bluff. US President John F. Kennedy addressed the American public in October 1962, informing the world that Soviet nuclear missiles had been detected in Cuba. Kennedy declared a naval blockade and warned that any nuclear missile launched from Cuba against any nation in the West would be treated as an attack by the Soviet Union on the United States, raising the real possibility of nuclear retaliation if the Soviets did not back down.

Despite the tough stance, Kennedy also offered a way out, calling Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev and promising to withdraw US nuclear missiles from Turkey in exchange, and to guarantee that the US would not invade Cuba. This balanced threat and diplomacy was pivotal in averting the Cuban Missile Crisis from erupting into a nuclear war.

This kind of politics was something the Biden administration proved incapable of, with enormous consequences, as since the war started, there has no longer been a good way out of this bloodshed. Trump is right in this sense. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s popularity at home has wavered for the same reason: Ukrainians want out of the vicious cycle of a war that is killing tens of thousands with no real hope of victory. But they want out without humiliation.

Those who hoped Trump’s bluffing politics would give them a chance, and prove a workable alternative to the impotent former US government, are now facing shocking disappointments.

The ego has landed

And this is about much more than just the war in Ukraine. Even without malicious intent, Trump’s genuine reactions seem the product of a spoiled, hyper-narcissistic ego with an oversimplified understanding of the world, and one that is surprisingly suggestible. This may explain his growing circle of high-profile supporters at home and abroad expecting huge personal gains from guiding his decisions.

Putin appears to be on the winning side, but few others are, since there’s no doubt that this ego-driven, impulsive politics from the leader of the free world is bringing the collapse of America’s influence. All its enemies know this very well, and play their cards accordingly, while the US’s allies are already suffering.